next on book tv. this is a little over an hour. [applause] >> okay. first of all, it is great to be back. we enjoyed our relationship that way. tokyo has been the headquarters of our asia-pacific operations for 25 years now. we enjoy a terrific relationship and a lot of different ways. one of my colleagues who is with me, doug peterson who just joined us from the city, and he is setting up. we welcome you, doug. dougie is all over the world. as such, he has lived quite a bit of time in japan himself. it's great to be with you tonight as well, doug. let's see. in terms of this whole notion of
the book, by the way, a very modest title, banker to the world. when i heard of this, and i am a very close, personal friend of bill's, like everyone in this room is. and so when he was talking to me about this concept of what he wanted to write about to lessons of debt crises and all of this, i just knew that it was right in our sweet spot, what we needed to the will to do. so we were able to convince them. so no i'm not talking to you about this -- talking to you as his friend but his publisher. we had this decision. we were going to do this book, and we did. the ink was that even dry when henry kissinger came out and said, this is a must-read for anybody in any section at any level of the finance industry. no sooner did he do that than
paul volcker came out and what to make a comment about how this is a must read. it is a must read, and he wanted to put a forward into the book so we added a forward into the book. then again from steve forbes, another good friend, was working on the european crisis at the time and was trying to make sense of certain aspects. cs -- he came out and said this is a must-read. now, my way of thinking he left out some southern european countries that might also get something out of it, but it's easy to let's see why f. why so many people need to know what bill doesn't have renewed their much to do with it in terms of doing it. now everyone knows that bill spends 53 years at.
now, i have heard over 50, 55 today. so we're going to go with over 50. that is a considerable amount of time. when you think about that time frame and going back, he was a devout disciple of a late and great chairman and of citi. again, when you talk about bill and you talk about walter, you talk about icons in this field. now, every single treasury secretary would come to see walter. and there were problems in argentina. there were problems in uruguay, problems in peru, problems in brazil, problems in mexico, problems in jamaica, problems and panama, and then we go over here and there are problems in
korea, problems in japan. we came over here, and we went back to the european crisis. we went down to south africa. there were problems. and in every case the treasury secretary would come and say, look, i need help. we don't have these kinds of people at the treasury. skynyrd offer of somebody that would understand this and bill to deal with it. he would always say, i have the person. the person's name is bill rhodes. you can't take him. the kelly borland. and so here's the fun part. every once in awhile bill would go on vacation. and every time he went on vacation it was walter who had to call in and tell him, please come back to new york right away and all of that. so the joke was, and it was not
much of a joke, it was every time he started talking about going on vacation people ducked because they knew something was coming. and with all of the lessons that he had developed and learn and apply to in terms of debt crisis , that name the individual , but this one person said, there is in the debt crisis that bill rose does like. so ladies and dental, you know, our treat tonight is to be with bill roads. ladies and gentlemen, the banker to the world. [applause] [applause] >> a few very much for your very kind comments. i should mention that actually the title of the book was the
idea of the publisher, just to get that straight. and i want to thank the japan society for inviting me to talk about my book, "banker to the world". i should mention that in the japanese editions i think the ministry of finance and the japanese banks for having been such great supporters of the work i did on sovereign debt restructuring worldwide for over 30 years. i could not have done it without them. i think wilbur mentioned that i would be talking mainly about europe, but i also have some things to say about japan. we are now in the fourth year -- i mean, the fourth year of the crisis in europe. and it certainly casts a long shadow. i think is fair to say that the
problems of europe have caused major problems worldwide with the size of that economy, including in japan, the united states, china. look at the trade figures worldwide. in 2010 trade grew coming out of the great recession just under 14%. in 2011 it was 5%, and i think the final figures for last year, 2012, would be somewhere between two and a half and 2.7. it is no wonder you have the problems you do worldwide and major economies with the slowdown in trade. and that think that unfortunately i think we are going to see a continuation of the problems in europe, at least for the most part, of the 2013. just take a look at the latest figures out of germany, which was the strongest economy in the
euros on when it came out. and we have our own problems, as you are aware, here in the united states, notwithstanding getting by the immediate crisis at the end of this year, the so-called fiscal cliff. all we may manage to do is to put off some of the biggest decisions for another two or three months. so i think, you know, europe has managed along with a little help from myself and elsewhere, to cloud the world economy. in the case of japan, i think people are very hopeful with the election of someone who was to finally get japan out of what is close to two decades of what you might call a lost time. and he has come forth, as you know, with his package which is equivalent to 116 billion u.s.,
10 trillion yen, to 2 percent gdp, a lot of that would go to infrastructure, a lot to the north, the earthquake area, but, of course all we have seen 14 such packages since the late 1990's. this one has to be different, and also, he is pressing the bank of japan. last time i was here was to introduce governor sure, several years ago who i think is a very good governor, one of the major central banks in the world , pressing him to put in more monetary stimulus, which i think is necessary, but one of the points that was made right in this room several years ago by the governor, and i have been within three ties in the last two months this monetary and fiscal stimulus are not enough in the case of japan in a major deregulation, i think, major
structural reforms, deregulation and the service area, so hopefully that will also into the package of the new prime minister. certainly it is a tough job, but this is zero world third largest economy, and if we don't get japan moving with some of the other problems with europe, eccentric and i think the world is in for another couple of tough years. obviously we wish him the best in that. but it is very important that this not just be fiscal and monetary stimulus, that you also take advantage of the structural reform effort, and i think japan faces, as you all know as well as i do, number of problems. what is going to be the new energy policy? what is going to be the policy toward nuclear energy? the aging population. i could run on. territorial disputes with its neighbors, you know, china,
korea. so there are a lot of different problems, but i think it is a crisis opportunity situation. the chinese used the expression. in japanese it is very similar, and so i think that the new prime minister is the right person at the right time to take these steps, but not limit them, as i said, to adjust monetary and fiscal, take advantage to meet all of these other problems and turn them into a virginities one last point, and then i will mention japan at the end of my brief remarks here, my good friend who died a number of years ago, a brilliant economist and a new japan very well. he taught at mit, always concerned that one day the high amount of government debt in japan would catch up to him,
notwithstanding that over 90 percent of it is held by japanese. of course, know it is 235 percent of gdp, the largest of any developed country in the world. and this is something that has to be taken account, as these stimulus programs are pressed ahead. it is something that japan has got to deal with sooner rather than later. it is sort of like us with our spending problem here. so i think what we are looking at worldwide. i have mentioned the three largest economies in the world. i have not mentioned china because i have been talking about developed economies, but i think we are looking to the emerging markets, 2013, to be very much a driver, and we have new leaders in china. comes in as premier. it will take these posts
formerly in march. i am optimistic based on my knowledge of these two individuals, and that think what you're going to see there is they will open up the economy in the financial sector. i think there will be freeing interest rates. there will more rapidly convert the r&b and very importantly they will stimulate domestic consumption more. china is too dependent on exports. and this will mean putting in more of a social safety net to free of savings cuts of finances. so i am optimistic there. we will have to see. we will see a thing here and there along what i am saying, but the real changes, i think, will take place after march, and that think they're relationship, notwithstanding the territorial disputes between japan and china
are key for both countries. so i would like to just put that on the table. if you take a look at where growth is going, at the institute of international finance thinks it will be much better next year than this year, talking about growth of the order of over two and a half percent as against slowly lower. so we will have to see if those figures, and a sense, are correct. but -- and those figures are pretty low when you take a look at economic growth. others of much higher figures to as you know. i think it is very important that we see europe move ahead, and the europeans have this idea . i think they have been disabused
of it that because the eurozone was made at the so-called developed countries, like lead america in the 80's and 90's and asia and the asian financial crisis in the late 1990's, that any of the lessons that a lot of people in this audience learned, you know, from those two crises and other ones, turkey and i could run on, east and central europe, there were not valid for them because they were so-called developed economies. and so when i thought i would do here is just run through some of the lessons that we have learned there that i think our -- unfortunately should have been looked at by the europeans and there are only now starting to realize that they could have cut down this present negative situation. the face of europe as a whole with a few exceptions is not either recession or stagnation. first, each country is unique
and a cookie cutter approach does not work. this is something they did not want to see, obviously. greece get into a situation by longtime mismanagement on the fiscal side and dragged the banks in. in the case of ireland, it was the banks that dragged the sovereign and, much different. wilbur is an expert on that. in the case of portugal, and we have some portuguese in the audience here, it was basically a decade of no growth. in the case of spain, it was a bubble and real estate that was financed by a mentally the gods of savings and loan institutions , some of which have gone under. and number have gone under. and the government that basically drove up the deficit and regional governments because region is very important in spain. also drove up this problem with
big deficits. and there were not intended to. and so in each one of these you have somewhat of a different reason. the case of italy, a debt to gdp of over 120% and growing and the lack of action and trying to do anything about it by the former government once they came in as a technician, and by the way, technicians are great, but the amount of time is limited because they have no popular support. whether it be greece or italy. and as you know, the elections in italy, and we will see how he does, but you need popular mandates to get these changes really through. i am encouraged in the case of ireland. they're making good progress, getting back to the market, but there are still a lot of problems. the latest victim is cyprus. the banks held a lot of greek paper. they ran up the deficit there, and so they are the latest
bailout case that we are going to see. but each country is different, and that leads to what is the same, and that is contagion. end of the europeans did not want to see that there was contagion at the time of greece no matter who you talk to, the few exceptions, policymakers, they thought that contagion out of greece in 2010. well, we know there has been plenty of contagion. end the minister of finance of germany made a statement to a group of us in tokyo at the imf meetings there a couple of months ago, when he was asked the biggest mistake he had made so far in the european debt crisis, and he said, we did not
understand and did not accept the idea of contagion. and, boy, europe has paid for that guy and so has the world. remember, he is the most important finance minister in all of europe, bar none. germany is the biggest economy. so i think contagion, unfortunately, is alive and well my friend is talking about positive contagion. i certainly hope that he is right. i think one of the things i learned from my friend, paul volcker, was -- and i learned this early in the 1980's during the latin american debt crisis, timing is of the upmost importance because the larger you take to fix the situation of the worse it gets. and, again, there has been no sense of urgency or timing in europe up until very recently. the feeling was that the policymakers there, politicians
had all the time in the world, and we see what that has brought. the growth or lack thereof. so i think timing really -- and when you announce time you have to live up to them. and we still don't have important time lines that are being lived up to there. i think another one is, if we want a program to succeed in a country, austerity or better call reform program, we have to make sure that the local populace of a country supports it. and that has been a problem day one in a country like greece. i think it has been somewhat better in portugal and ireland, but, still, problems. and so you have to get the people's support, and the only way you do that is say, this program is going in. it is a tough program, what is going to lead to growth. if you don't have programs leading to growth, the local population in the country will not buy off on it.
so, i think it is very, very important that we have that. you take a look at some of the cases which are really, i would say, serious. greece is in its -- right now they are going into their sixth year of recession. this last year probably ended up six and a half-growth. next year they're talking four to 5% negative growth. that is not a recession, that is a depression. dixon and the unemployment figures. there they have 170 percent of debt to gdp and growing. so it is very important that you convince the population that growth is there. i think obviously very importance, a point, strong political leaders. if you have strong political leadership you can sell these programs and make them work, but
that means you have to have people running the country, policymakers to believe and structural reforms, privatizations, tax reforms, budget cuts, labour mobility, and they need to be competitive both internally and externally. if you do not have governments with plants like that, you're not going to get them back to growth anytime soon. so it is very, very important that you can do that. the point is the private sector, and that think this is a problem because at the beginning there was no interest in the case of greece and in some of these other countries and involving the private sector. and, in fact, it was only when things get so bad that greece called upon the private sector with the troika, which as you know, is the european union, the european central bank, ecb, and the international monetary fund to really get the private sector involved, and there you had a big hair cut. if it had been dealt with
earlier would not have been and is bad and now they have to do another debt buyback problem, an operation which is still a problem. so i think the idea of giving the private sector involved early on, and we showed this both in latin america and asia, the asian financial crisis, korea being a good example, i think is very, very, i think, important. so, those are the lessons learned from elsewhere that the europeans are not just turning the lights into the fourth year. but what needs to be done going for? because that is what really is, i think, important. i think three things need to be done. first of all, you need to get this banking union and has been talked about most of last year actually accomplished because you need to break the tide between sovereign and rate -- banks india to get the banks backed lending. we still don't see that's officially in europe carries so you need to get this bank in
union arranged. originally was supposed to be -- i was a question -- questionnaire on july 26 when the famous historic statement that he would do everything possible at the ecb to make sure that the euro got through this problem. and i was designated as a questionnaire to ask him about the banking union. and at that point he was very optimistic. keep up the banking union could be worked on and in place of the first quarter of this year. well, now they moved it to the first quarter, hopefully in 2014, and you still have arguments over how is going to be done. you need to put a timeline on this, and then you have to adhere to it. but to get the banking system back with similar regulations throughout the eurozone is absolutely necessary. it is key to the recovery of europe. second of all, a plan that he talked about on july 26 in
london last year, which is the outright monetary transactions where the ecb would buy bonds from the country's in trouble along with the european stability mechanism under certain conditions. in other words, certain conditionality. no, the ecb is not going to put up that conditionality. they have enough as the central bank and no as a supervisor for the banks. and so it will probably be the international monetary fund, but they have not really agreed what kind of conditionality they're going to put up into is going to do it. the lead candidate for this should be spain, but the prime minister of spain told me several months ago, he would only go in to this program f there was no additional conditionality other than what he was taken because he thought he was taking enough in spain. second of all, if the ecb could
prove to him that by taking his son that the spreads for the cost of issuing bonds would go down significantly. as you see, nothing has been done there, but what psychologically is of the markets and other this program is there. there really have to make it work and show its efforts with the conditionality will be. at the next one is something which is a favorite, and i agree with chancellor merkle of germany. you need a fiscal pact, and this was agreed on in march last year . you need 12 of the 17 countries to of approve it. ireland was one of the first to approve an inmate. a very, very important. when this eurozone was formed was formed with a monetary union which was a european central bank, and what they call the treaty. now, the treaty was to limit
deficit to gdp to 3 percent. guess who were the first to to break it? the two largest members, germany and france. what example for companies in southern europe which at all broken it. so she is adamant that this fiscal pact went through, and that the she is right. you cannot move forward with the eurozone unless you have a fiscal pact to match the monetary union. and a lot of work has to be done on that, but i think these are the three things that are necessary to get the eurozone and most of europe back to growth. and it is not going to be easy. and so i think i would just say to you that the banking system in europe and, again, a number of you know it very well, grover is getting himself involved in it, fortunately. but in europe the countries and
businesses depend more on the banking system than they do here in the united states. why? because we have a more developed capital market. and so they have a less developed capital market, so although it is starting to develop more rapidly because of the bank's problems. and so the key, as i said, to getting them back to growth is a banking system. and so all the things i have mentioned here, the european central bank has put in the l t r0, three year lows of 1 percent. they did a year ago. and now they have done the zero empty. they have lessened the amount of collateral necessary to borrow the european central bank. but the banking system has been shedding assets because they have had to raise additional capital. they have been concentrating more on that and lending, unfortunately. and a lot of you in this room are aware of that. some of the benefactors of the beneficiaries, japanese banks to have been buying for --
portfolios and investors on the market. but we have to get the european banks back to london. that is key to all of what i said here. then i would just say a few words about -- and again, a firm time lines to do this because if you don't have firm time lines it won't happen, and the markets will believe. i would throw in another thing. frankly, i think that the euro is kind of strong if you really want to improve your export base, and i think at some point in time you have to get the euro down visa the the dollar to a weaker euro, mainly to help spur exports which will help spur growth, which is exactly what a new prime minister is trying to do in japan. and i think that one of the
things i want to mention that he is very evident is going to push and a think he is very correct is trade within asia. and he has to opportunities. what has been on the table while, and it is clouded by territorial disputes, which is the northeast economic it -- asian economic bloc which would be japan, korea, and china. i think that it is very important that this go ahead with the second and third largest economies. and he has said he really wants to move ahead on that. so i really hope so, but of course it is clouded by these territorial disputes. trade, as i mentioned, is a subject that he has shown tremendous leadership in of the last decade. we now have something new on the table. almost two years ago, the trans-pacific partnership. and i think japan should be part of that.
it will take a courageous decision because there are a lot of people entranced and japan do not want to be part of that, but i think if he can do the things that we talked about before, you know, he has announced a fiscal stimulus, pushing the bank of japan and the monetary stimulus. if he can do the structural reforms i discussed and push on these two, northeast economic bloc and the pan pacific trade agreement, i think this will be a big help to japan on exports, and as we all know, japan is very dependent upon exports. you need to stop the hollowing out of industry in japan moving elsewhere. so, i think these -- at the end of the day as we know, there are major territorial disputes with china and with korea, and i think i look favorably, the new prime minister, sending a
representative to carry it to talk with the new president-elect of korea, and hopefully something can be worked out in this area, as you know, basically in japan and korea right now trying to seek if the united states can have the helping hand because that is the u.s. big l.i. in the north pacific them. the territorial dispute with china will be much more difficult. japan, as you know, is one of the biggest foreign investors and senate, so it is not just japan that suffers on to this, also china, so i am hoping when president xi jinping takes over foley in
march that he and the prime minister work something out. there are a lot of voices in japan and china which are very militants, and it is not going to be an easy job. what i think is very important and for the united states this is most important, to get this trade moving and get our allies working together. and so i tend to be an optimist, like terry, and that is why we work together on of these trade deals, and it goes -- it was a long, difficult battle in a career in latin america and all the others, but at the end of the day and think it is worthwhile, and i hope we're going to be seeing a new dawn in korea and this regard. so we have new leaders in china, new leaders in korea, and new leaders in japan. hopefully there will be able to seize some of these things, so i think it is very important, not just for asia, not just for these countries, but freshly for the world given what is happening elsewhere, particularly in europe. having said that, i think we
should go and have our little conversation. thank you very much. [applause] >> there is a buck and japanese. >> and the book is in portuguese. this simplified chinese, korean, and now japanese. so i think that, you know, the words we just heard from bill, so lucid and so straightforward, and you sort of, you know, grab
this notion of why didn't we start implementing some of these things quicker. and we seem to get into such complication. and so the first question, i think that i would like to ask. go any direction that anyone wants. , you know, because we were talking about, you know, the lack of coordination and cooperation and relationship and that people were going it alone, especially in the european crisis and the like. no, you have this long standing relationship. could you talk a little bit about the relationship. from the bookstand point, who are some of the world leaders that you go with that have the most positive influence in terms of relationship development in getting things done? >> well, walter was a -- and internationalist first class, and he expanded citi bank
significantly overseas. he was a great friend of japan. used to go there regularly. and i think he along with paul volcker and the public sector side or major mentors of mine. and so i think it is fair to say , and you have seen this from the altar was the greatest banker of his age. and that is what city is going back to, i think, at this point in time. we have a lot of prez's city bankers, former citi bankers in this audience who will agree with me. so but as far as, you know, working with walter, and he is the one who got me involved in all of this. john reed later on. we are both, i think, significant world financial leaders. as far as having talked with a lot of people, i think meeting
mandela, having dealt with a number of cases, spent an hour in 1980 with fidel castro. he wanted my advice on how to restructure the cuban debt. i said to mike and speak to you about that because we nationalized you in cuba. one of the first tax we did was nationalized the human bank. and then we're kind of even year. and this was in nicaragua. in fact, running the sandinista government, now back again running the corona where, he put us together. and certainly fascinating there. i mean, i could run through so many people. i have to up -- one of the sessions with mandela, i was asked to tell mr. mcgrath the who was then president of zimbabwe and still president of zimbabwe who had used dollars timeout. he was not very happy with that. because of that, i was able to do that. our secretary of commerce asked me if i would share the 50th
anniversary of the united nations, the effort a loss of the u.s. was given at that time, which i did because he said, look, if you can do that then you can take anything else. so, i mean, there have been a lot of people. you mention secretaries of treasury here in the united states, certainly the various heads of the fed and central bankers. i think worldwide, i think one of the things that we need to see more of getting to the point that i know you want to talk about is we need leadership, and we have now seen the top leadership in europe that we need to see to get out of the crisis. we were lucky in the case of a lot american debt crisis that we had paul volcker at the fed and the international monetary fund. two of the most outstanding public sector people i have ever known. because people for did know. the early 80's was about to go under. in fact, they compare it to
moving deck chairs on the titanic. and that worked out, i think nick brady, his breed plan. we had real c-span2, and i think that is what we are missing in many parts of the world, including europe, where -- although i must say of the ecb, a lot of the policy makers and politicians have not shown that. and so i think we need to see that worldwide. we need to see it in our own country. i mean, just witnessed this discussion that went on, whenever you want to college, at the end of the year. and we have the best to come yet because we have to the side of the debt ceiling and spending. and so this is where we really need leadership, which we were used to. i tend to be an optimist about the united states because people gave up on us of vietnam's, on the watergate crisis, and we came charging back, and that
think we will do it here. it would be nice if we did not have to go to the clef each time to do it. >> you know, and it began, when you start talking about the kind of relationships and leadership, you know, we still seem to have this atmosphere where people talk more at each other than trying to find some common ground, some common goal in getting it done. you broke still hold goal of growth and jobs, and that is the answer to all of this. you also talked a lot about contagion. now, we all, you know, a sense that if the europeans situation got worse and they are representing 23% of world gdp, you know, the effect that it is going to have on the united states, india, brazil is going to be real. and so with 40 percent of their exports coming year to the united states and so forth, you know, all of a sudden, you know,
we started to see the effect on our own growth, india's growth, brazil's growth. >> china. >> and china. now we add another 21 percent of world gdp, the united states, which is under 2 percent growth. you know, if we don't resolve some of the debt ceiling and some of the spending cuts and get into some of the fiscal order that you were talking about, you're going to have that weight on it, and even though you proposed a lot of hope with japan in terms of some of the political leadership, they are still in negative growth was 7%. so now your up to 50% or so of world gdp that is a drag on the economy. how you look at, you know, the broader sense of contagion as it relates to the emerging market growth and development country growth with 50 percent of world's gdp possibly in that situation? >> i think the trade figure still at all, whether you agree with the figures of growth are
not, i think the trade figures show what is happening. there is no doubt, picking one of the countries mentioned, china, i mean, china for the last of the years has been double digit growth. last year they had one of the worst years in recent memory. we will see the final figures coming out. it did not give below 7%, which i view as hard landing, but when you move from double digits down to a 7-something percent, one of the major drivers of that was the largest export market is europe. and they did not believe that europe would come a, get into the problem and, b, take so long to get out of it. the second-largest market is us. and so they helped put the world out of the grim recession by this tremendous stimulus program. welcome your not going to see this again. i basically think that you have to have things work done at the june 20 because the only g27 that i attended was london when
the world was going into the great depression, not agree recession, and they took certain steps to ameliorate that, to stimulate growth. so i think that is next year is going to be tough, and that think you sense complacency in europe. it is interesting that one of the real drivers in brussels is of the red, and he came out with a statement the other day saying he is concerned about complacency, and i think he is right on because you of all these people saying, ever since that comment was made on july 26, look where the markets of gun. you know, the markets can be right, but the markets can be wrong. and i think that not having been able to do the three things i said where the fixed timeline basically said how long as you're going to be stuck here? and so i think that this is a real question. you mentioned in the also. india was up eight, nine and a
half percent growth. drop below 6%. you have these major world economies where they are, and so i think you need a good dose of not only fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus, but you have to back that up with structural reform. and i think deregulation, and i think that is really key for the world to get out of this problem that it is in today because we both agree, it is all growth and jobs. and if you cannot show the path, that is why i used nick brady and the brady plan because it gave the pathway to gross. correa, 1998, he came into power, men of the left, the last thing he wanted to do was to sign an imf agreement. he told me, he said, i inherited this. you have my full backing. do is ever necessary. you were the first ones to support me? japanese banks. 40 percent of the debt.
the first ones. with that i then got the american banks online and european banks online. so there you have the political will to do it. brazil, 1994, the country had been in moratorium. i don't know how many restructurings, and he decided enough is enough as finance minister. and he said we have to get this to deal done. we worked on it, got it done. within hours he announced away at plan which took brazil out of hyperinflation. and brazil had its ups and downs since, but it is a different result today and in 1994. and the last example i would give this turkey. s. -- professor in 2001, my frio was president of the world bank, i worked with them and that particular plan because we had to convince the u.s. treasury to
support the imf, but he put in reforms, and he told the people of turkey, look, you're going to have to take this austerity, but we will leave you to growth, and he did. a look richard yes, after that. so i just use these three examples, one in the middle east, one in latin america, run it -- one in asia where they were able to do this, and this is an example of leadership to do what is necessary. in korea we get this done in a couple months they took a decision and went after it. >> there are a lot of things that you were talking about, the leadership, the political leadership, the timing, the banking union, giving the banks back into lending in the fiscal pack in those components on that part. you know, just as an aside, in
talking about another country, russia, you know, russia desperately wants to reintroduce its self to the rest of the world. and not in some of the way that it has been. they have this opportunity with a g20 coming of in september. crystal ball. do you see anything from a coordinations standpoint from veggie 20 coming out of this? you see russia's image changing? >> well, i think this is a bigger opportunity for the prime minister to show what could happen. we will just have to see. they're sitting and these are reserves. we know where the price of oil is, but there are a lot of problems. and so we have tessie weather, you know, russia can show that it is taking some of these reforms it needs to take.
we will see, and this is a perfect opporunity to do so. so far, i think, as i said, the only g20 meeting that really did anything positive was the one in london, and i give credit to gordon brown, that was his greatest moment, i think, at that particular time. the i mean, you have had very well organized meetings. i was in korea. nobody organized it like the koreans. a great meeting. all the talk to was currency, worse, and nothing much came out of it. and then the one and france with sarkozy. it rained the whole time, and it was like raining on the parade because it was a disaster. nothing happened. and although there were a lot of nice intentions coming out of mexico at the last g20, it is not clear what we're going to see. one of the areas we have not gotten into, i did not get into here is this whole question of regulation of financial institutions. this is one of the mandates of
the g20, the financial stability board. if they don't get this right and get a level playing field worldwide, we are going to have world regulatory ardor trash worse than before, and this is a worldwide problem, not just a european problem because you're the united states we have dodd-frank. in england we have vickers. and then in europe we have the report. and all sorts of variations. such a lens had to fuss with dylan has its own series, and the whole idea was that edgy 20, the financial stability board and committee were going to come through with a series of amendments and raising capital and liquidity standards on a universal, global, cooperative basis, coordinated basis that would avoid what happened to, the great recession so the next one is not worse, but the record is very mixed there. >> let me take a break here and let's open it up.
let's go right over here. >> gin big slur, rutgers university. lots of economists, such as your friend, reborn bush from mit did you mentioned, are believers competition is the hallmark of a country thriving, growing, jobs, etc. and lots of economists, even before the euro was instituted, argue that they needed europe, more competition rather than coordinated currency to make center. the bad rose for europe under
the euro. you mentioned a lot of the problems on the flip side of competition, namely regulation. give us your perspective in terms of competition, regulation and the euro and government coordination. >> i think it is a very good question. a lot needs to be done there. and i think that at the time that the euro was put together my good friend bob o'dell, a professor at columbia and nobel prize winner had different views of what it was going to @booktv was going to work out and what has happened. that was not in his idea but because you have had tremendous regulation there, indeed more. no doubt about it. it's going to get more competitive. take the case. i keep going back to greece because that is the extremists
there. you take a look at the unemployment rate between, you know, 58 percent of the youth between, you know, under 25. just incredible. even in the great depression did not have that. overall unemployment levels of 26. i must say that the finance minister in portugal, and we have a portuguese experts sitting here who is a professor of economics and portugal has tried to really drive that home, the need for portugal to be more competitive and they made a lot of progress there, not enough, but i think one of the things that i'm hoping that we see out of all these countries, whether it be portugal, spain, italy, all of the countries that i mentioned here, that we give more in the way of competitive.
testiculate difference. now, france is the second-largest economy in the eurozone and is very important that you see some of these reforms that we talked about happening. france and stagnation, if a recession. and so i go back to us, and as i said, there is a japanese equivalent to it, a chinese expression, this is a great the opportunity for the europeans to do correctly what they have not done before. now, whether there will pick up on it will see, but certainly just like up ben bernanke can't solve our problems here in the united states also you can solve the eurozone problems either. and so i think the point you're making in competition perky to be worked on at this moment. you can drive a lot of things into the eurozone because of the
economic situation. >> i think you can make it through. obviously in the case of greece no one wants to his have elections coming up in germany in september with chancellor merkle and everyone wants to all the together. at the end of the date it's going to much depends on whether greece and implement the programs they've agreed to. i think there would be a euro. the question is what it would look like and what the will be because originally there was a big school of thought saying the euro judge should have been something of the of one month
ago off of go -- i should say he came out also in talks about his concern on the value of the euro visa the the dollar,. exports, so i think we are very far from where a lot of members of the marketplace are, that the worst is over for europe, don't worry. it is just a matter of time. >> allayed decision. >> did everyone here that? at think you -- >> to the u.k. meet the right decision in being a member? >> well, the prime minister at the time certainly think so. and as you know, karen osborn is the guarantor of his. so you can argue that
back-and-forth at this particular point in time. the question this, if you had a referendum in the uk today, which you're not going to have for another couple of years, will with the vote be? most think it would be tough pull out if there is not some sort of restructuring of the u.k.'s royal. certainly without the u.k., the eurozone can continue to exist. i think the chancellor certainly wanted to keep in the eu because they never went into the eurozone, but they are an active member of the eu. she wants to keep them end. >> time is getting a little tight here, so let's go to two questions very quickly right here and then right over here. >> you said that you would enhance economic opportunities in asia, asian members of commerce. >> that is an interesting
question. some very senior members of congress, in fact, the senior senator testified -- just died who had tremendous clout, and you're seeing more and more asian members elected, male and female, and i think he will continue to us see that. you know, -- [inaudible question] >> well, you have -- i think there are several -- one who is korean, one korean-american. at think you will see more going forward because you love a lot of asian-americans who are mayors in major cities to lend that think that if the answer is, i think it would be very helpful to have more asian americans as members of congress. and, of course, he had a governor who is now our ambassador to -- our secretary of commerce who is now our
ambassador to beijing. if you believe the chinese, he is the most popular ambassador of any in china today. so popular that some members of the government thinks he is too popular. the chinese government think he is too popular. and he is a good friend of terry's and also of mine. so i would hope to see more of that going forward. >> at the time of the formation of the euro, the three tier euro was considered but not adopted. an unfortunate results of this has been that the mediterranean countries so largely dependent on tourism have become -- well, they're really not competitive. is it time to reconsider the 3-tier euro when that an
important effect would be a very substantial devaluation of the mediterranean countries and that should result in their growth, economic growth simply from increased tourism. sfax -- >> i think historically when i talk about latin america and at the asian financial crisis, correa as an example, is that one of the great things they have is the ability to devalue and push exports. and what do we have? we have euro and one of its strong points today which is one of the reasons why i'm going to have to get before the european central bank to drop interest rates which, i think, would push
the euro lower and help exports. i think it always hangs out there. that is the biggest argument like greece. their currency is misaligned for a country like greece. i do not see that you're going to have a 2-tier were 3-tier system. i think if you really are going to have a man, some members will be there and others won't. and so i think what is important, though, and more and more i think the politicians are realizing this, policymakers also an to brussels, you cannot just let it out. you have to up plans roads. at think that is the message the electorate to portugal when i was there. , because if you don't show that there is growth potential -- i
should say portugal increased its exports substantially but you need to have a plan for growth. now, devaluation will get you there because you have to be competitive, deregulation. those are even more important. the devaluation only lasts so long. the major structural changes and deregulation in this will be challenged for the prime minister. you have 14 continuous programs since the late 1990's in japan. if the bundle these up to -- bundle these up and a packet and put them through. i think that we're the europeans are falling down, this goes back to the questions we have already had here, is they did not put the emphasis on being
competitive. they did not put the emphasis on driving the fiscal side along with the monetary side, and they allowed it to happen and let the other way. and now they're paying the price, and so was the world. >> ladies and gentlemen, i am afraid i have the bad job of having to say at think we better hold it there. >> i still have my voice. >> yes, you do. and what an outstanding presentation, and not only an outstanding world leader, but you are the banker to the world. [applause] [inaudible conversations] >> every weekend book tv offers 48 hours of programming focused on nonfiction authors and books. watch it here on c-span2.
>> from almost the founding you're able to see the fertility rates declining. by the time we hit the second world war we were right around to and immediately after the first world war two of the second world war, sorry, we have the only major instance of increase in fertility rate in the entire country's history, the baby boom. the baby boom, you know, the term which fits us. and it really was remarkable as a moment because not only did the fertility rate increase, quite high, it went up to about as high as three and a half fighting for white americans, not only did it jumped up, but it stayed up for an entire generation and it was a really long lasting impact. people change the way they lived for generations. and then by 1970 that momentum, that moment had ended. we saw that a gradual slowdown, but really the fertility rate dropped off a cliff. >> jonathan last on how changing demographics and birth rates
could cause the u.s. to lose its place as the world's leader, sunday night at 9:00 eastern on afterwards on c-span2. and look for more book tv on line. like us on facebook. >> after being officially founded in 1607 by a small group of european settlers, santa fe changed hands several times. in 69 the area was conquered by spain and then in 1680 indigenous pueblo indians won the land back. the spanish reclaimed the area from 1692 until 1821 when mexico gained independence from spain and established santa fe as the capital of the province of new mexico. mexico was ceded to the united states in 1848 as part of the treaty of guadalupe hidalgo, and mexico became a state in 1912. throughout this time santa fe remained the capitol city. book tv brings you more from the area with the help of comcast next.
>> i'm james mcgrath morris, and we are here today in the palace press. behind the stand early printing presses, and this seemed like an absolute perfect place to talk about the man who revolutionized american newspapers. whenever start working on the boat people would react with recognition when i said i was writing about joseph pulitzer, but it was clear from their expression they knew the name and not anything about his life because pulitzer shares the fate of the well known for a price which he endowed, but not for what he did in his life. very few people remember that alfred nobel was an explosives and munitions maker in very few people understand the significant role that joseph pulitzer played in american history, yet like some of the giants of the 18th-century, bananas remember, carnegie, morgan, rockefeller, all of these people, a pulitzer played a significant role at a critical moment in american history which was the industrial age, the aids that made america the way we
think of ourselves today. and the role he played is really the midwife of the birth of a modern mass media. before his time we did not have the kind of media that we now swim in every day, the notion of americans, you know, checking the news on their phones or going to cnn or watching c-span. these are all things ever cultivated in that time. so it turns out that pulitzer not only played a historic the significant role in the 19th century, led a fascinating life which makes for great reading, but the influence he wielded is still with us today. and the reason people don't remember pulitzer today is because in some ways his accomplishments as a happenstance now. in the 19th century printing was the internet. we all go, well, i can book a ticket or have this bill gadget and every day we explain. and so the idea of getting news today quickly and easily are all commonplace things, and we don't think it is such a big deal in evaluating it, and in some way
and not so sure all americans will remember who morgan was or who rockefeller was or who carnegie was, yet we drive across bridges made with steel. that is the carnegie gift. we used cars powered by oil. that is a world that rockefeller built, and we use a financial system built by morgan, and we are consuming is built on a system that was developed and created by people like pulitzer, born in the 1840's, came to the united states as a mercenary soldier to fight a civil war. the north needed soldiers, and it went to europe to refute -- recruit single young men. he did not really see any action. like many veterans, he was unemployed, often hard to reintegrate people into the economy. he ends up in st. louis where he becomes befriended by a major german-american who becomes a senator from missouri and is a newspaper publisher. pulitzer enters a world of the press at that point. he is doing everything at next ordinary rate, which we don't do
anymore, but it is fascinating to compare his life with modern-day immigrants. within five years of a trendy as haiti's elected the state legislature in missouri. that kind of speed of immigration that we had with people were coming. he becomes fabulous a successful, and the release shortening the story in st. louis as the publisher of the post-dispatch and inventing a very new form of journalism. pulitzer is much like a modern-day surfer. and i mean by that is if you go to the beach and look out on the water beyond where the waves are breaking, you see men and women just battling the waves. one of them paddles with extraordinary speed, and because they perceive that little undulation of the water to be the best way of the day the others don't. they'd go see it. well, pulitzer signed an 18th-century tidal waves of social change that he was going to write. what were they? well, people were leaving farms and coming to cities and working in factories, becoming commuters . women made important economic decisions in the farms and are
now becoming housewives. paper was being made with such strength out of wood, not cloth. the conductor printing presses at high speed. became possible to print a newspaper thousands of copies and get it out on the street. the victorian internet had been invented, the telegraph, bringing news from washington d.c. that morning, so what happened in congress would reach st. louis. so pulitzer produced in afternoon paper that he would sell to commuters always entertaining to read that contain economic information, advertising, so the wives would know where to buy flour. it contains the latest news so that the next day's papers were actually printing yesterday's news. and he did more than that. he discovered that in urban life there was this tremendous trauma that you could write up in a nonfiction way, the way dickens was writing tales of the poor in london. so the paper was ringingly interesting to read, and all these elements combined and of what people in called western
because ann lewis was called western, western journalism. and so like a broadway play, well, he did the same thing. he brought his style of newspaper into new york city, brought the bankrupt new york world, and within months was making millions of dollars and revolutionize journalism and one set of an intense that is an analogy for the importance of pulitzer , created this newspaper, new york world in new york, and he looked down to the lower east side where masses of the rents were coming in the 1880's in the 1890's , and i mean messes, millions of people were coming from overseas. new york was the port of entry. ellis island was about to open up. the upper class saudis boats is a dangerous group. they saw the mess poor, dirty, all these kinds of things. pulitzer did not see them that way. @booktv as potential readers.
so he at modest his reporters to go and write about their lives. today's paper was a tiny tot falls to his death from a tenement building. the upper-class drinking dirty with their little fingers up, oh, such sensation. there were missing the point. to the people on the lower east side, the overcrowded tenements, this was their lives being portrayed in print. kids did fall to their deaths. in fact, in the summer it was so hot this was the most densely populated place in the world. people would go up to the roofs and get to breathe at night. children would fall to their death, and this was chronicled. so by writing about them he was, in essence, dignifying their lives. and i give this comparison all the time. i ask people, if you were to take me home, i bet you one your refrigerator is a clipping of some sort that you have kept him your child's graduation, your child's accomplishments at school, maybe a sad news, obituary.
those events occurred, regardless of on print or not, so when we keep these? because riding in prince puts things -- brings dignity and meaning to actions. so lower east side class of people saw the paper as they're friend that produced this kind of dignity. the paper also is the interest -- entry to american life. as a little as a penny you can get the papers because the telephone book with respect utterings, easy to understand stories, serialization of literature. we download music now. that's old stuff. then he printed this sheet music, the latest tomb inside the paper so you to play the latest music so pulitzer beat this enormously important some better relationship with the poorest people. and then returned to things happened that were really amazing. one of which is the statue of liberty was being given to the united states. and in terms were supposed to raise the money on our own.
so the statue is on its way, we have not raise the money. pulitzer ran a front-page story about the scandal that no one had paid for this and a story that said bring your pennies and nickels. will put your name in the paper and we will thank you for it. we will raise the money privately. you have to understand, a banner of the 19th century so trusted by the lower class of new york, the kids would come in with the pennies, workers would come in with the nichols and say, here is. i trust that you will use this. going to some major corporate leader and say, here is five bucks. i hope he will use it in the right way. it amplifies the relationship. the next day in the paper your name would be listed for that contribution. the same paper that had the vendor builds to masters, morgans, there would appear michael a shannon's name for having given a penny. so this sculpture is pedestal was built that way and in time the center of liberty was put up
. so last bit of this architectural tour of new york did show you that significance of all this, no recreated american journalism. weil, important. the papers are being published every hour of the day. there is an important trial in new york, a reporter would sit in the room, write his story, and it to a copy boy would go downstairs, pick up an open phone, dictated to the paper. that would print that, put it on the streets, and the boys would sell, so was so accused of selling soap. that was the cnn of that time. so important that on election night people would gather by the thousands down on park row because there was no radio to tell you who would win. you look at the front of the newspapers for the have big board's and would put the results and shock. so pulitzer became, as i said, the midwife of this whole world of journalism on which people depended on, turned to news from entertainment, it would say a dinner tonight, did you read that story in the new york world
war may be a competitor. the point is, people would talk about news. some making all this money, he needed a new headquarters, so we went down to park row and bought french's hotel. a great lesson for young people because you always hear that revenge is a dispenser of cold. french's soto had kicked him out of the lobby as an indigent unemployed veteran. he came back, but the hotel, tore down. he built the tallest building. the top, a building at the top with the editorial office. april gold leaf on the top. the top floor of this building which overlooked all of new york, the tallest building on the globe was where the newsroom was and where the pulitzers office's work. and what is so significant about that, it remade the landscape of new york at this taught to of this point. the empire state building in the 20th century, that kind of profound effect. so just like he remade the landscape of journalism, he
remade the landscape of new york with this building. this is the profound moment that i think really illustrates adult. when those immigrants coming into new york harbor, and this is something people forget, when immigrants left the steppes of russia there was no delta flight were virgin air flight to go home and seem on the next year. you were betting your last dollars that you might be able to get away from the oppression and reestablish our life in this land. and so as you went to the harbor, it is a terrific moment. your first look at the new land, and the fog is there, maybe, you know, the fog would clear and you will see the statue of liberty. those immigrants would see that. and it would not necessarily know the pedestal had been built with the pennies and nickels of the once again before. then it would turn and have their first look at the new york city skyline, the city that would welcome them, the city where they would learn english, the city where they would get their first full of american economic life. the sun was right, gleaming of the goldome of the glow building, not a monument to commerce, not a monument to
banking, not a monument to manufacturing or agriculture, but a monument to the american press, the only constitutional the explicitly constitutionally protected form of business in the united states, the first amendment. it does not so you have the right to make steel. the new york world that will be the ticket to understanding how to get ahead, the ticket to learning english and the ticket to american politics. that is the effect pulitzer had back then. he was a very difficult man to live with as a biographer, sort of like a howard hughes of the 19th century. at the peak of his power when he was the publisher of the most powerful publisher on the globe, is paper had the power of the new york times, cnn, and the "washington post" and cbs news all combined. it was people read the world in the way that people when i was a child used to watch the three networks and tv. so he reached to this enormous panicle power and began to go blind. so, like beethoven who cannot
hear his own music, a pulitzer could not read his own paper. at the same time he became beset with a number of psychological issues. one of which was sound disturb him. so he built a name for himself, the tower of silence, no room in which it could go and get refuge from sound. his new york city mansion had a special bedroom which was separated -- separate walls, its bank plate glass to keep the noise out. if you were invited have lunch with him and you ate your salary and a fashion that was too noisy, you would get a memo the next day saying next time you have lunch with mr. pulitzer no crunch crunch please. so this became an obsession for him. it became obsessively be set with all these problems. so the second half of his life he got on his yacht, the world's largest got, to be correct, morgan's was 3 feet bigger, but a massive yacht. the engines were put a special part of the yachts of the sun would not reach an, and basically went back and forth across the world. one of the most daring writers
to work for him, david philip gramm, a very favorite to the famous novelist wrote him a note on which she had the courage to say to mr. pulitzer, your problems are not the kind you can free geographically. in a possible mental live with. once his daughter had a minor operation, very complex with kids, but it involves some bleeding. all household was in a tizzy. a teenage daughter. and pulitzer stands up at the dining room table. no raider had written this down. folks, what about me? and suffering here. so this self-centered this, his ego maniac, his social issues makes them absolutely fascinating character that we are able to understand. the thing of the best about the book was that his wife, kate, understood it better than any of us did. she loved him in a way that no one else could. as he went blind she took a liking he have a painting of his mother. "we would've done today is
dr. king goes in and large did. she had a painter paints a very large versions of before you lose all his life sight he could still see his mother. later a portrait that at one point she does have an affair, and i think the sense that readers have at that point is you go, girl. what is his legacy? and it is two parts. he gave money to it creates two things, the journalism school at columbia university just now celebrating its centennial. this is very important. missouri has a journalism school, a kansas. it is important to realize that journalism, like any profession require professional training, so he took his money to create a school by which people could be professionally trained to become journalists because it is irresponsible kraft. what is important about the
legacy is a lot of the solutions to of modern mass media problems will, of those institutions were younger people are trying to become journalists. they have to figure out a way, just a pulitzer did, to make it work. so that is one important message. the other is the pulitzer prize. money left behind to reward journalists and newspapers and writers and artists and other people for great contributions. two aspects of it that are significant. one, if you get it is, of course, changes your life. the joke is now you know what the first three words of the of this year -- of the chair to of of this year will be. that reflects the power of that gift, that price. bella century after his death, we are still honoring people using his name. the other thing it does is it shares with the nobel peace prize. if you look carefully, the nobel peace prize is often given to people who are in danger, you
know, it could be a woman in burma standing up for democracy. could be a group trying to bring about peace and a dangerous place the northern ireland, and the reason it is given is in a sense to protect that person because you're not going to go and assessing a somebody who just won the nobel peace prize. it has brought world attention. the most significant pulitzer prizes the one for public service. it is often given to a newspaper's to have been daringly covering something the community did not want them to cover. and when they cover something the community does not want to cover, the journalists are ostracized, the local towns often pull out the advertisements, which is the economic base, and the newspapers take a tremendous risk to write about something that could be a scandal, something important, but the community, you know, does not want to hear about it. when they get the pulitzer prize for public service, it is a recognition, national recognition of the importance of what they have done an innocence provides the same kind of umbrella protection of the nobel
peace prize does to people who are daring. pulitzer was an extraordinarily significant person who still to this day affects our lives. and just like, you know, a child may recognize all of a sudden i have a mannerism from my father or mother or a habit, you know, you suddenly say, and just like my mother, you know. you recognize those routes. we as a culture need to understand that all of the habits we have today come from people who came before us. when you read pulitzer you begin to understand a lot of the traits we have about consumption , news, understanding of news, news as a form of entertainment. these radical notions from is time that we inherited that have taken on to build our society. the other thing i think is important to above pulitzer and we need to think about it in the seismic change your helmet the american media, pulitzer hammer away over and over again that the newspaper business is not just a business. there is a public-service aspect to it, that a democracy cannot
function without an informed public. somebody has to be at that school board meeting at 2:00 in the morning when their voting and the contract as to who will build the next cool. and as the press shrinks today, there are no people at those meetings keeping an eye on things. and the press ultimately lacks the darkest recesses of our society. we know about the hardships about poverty, where 45 whether we want to or not because of the press, we knew about corruption in the government that gets fixed because of the press. we know about what is on the public agenda and sometimes too much, like the fiscal cliff. we hear about it over and over again, but these are critically important roles of the press play, and that the pulitzer story is a reminder of that that, yes, these are businesses run by the new york times, the washington post, that they perform this enormously important civic active -- action of informing yes. the question we have to deal with this as these papers no longer can support themselves, what will come next to replace them?
>> for more information on book tv recent visit to santa fe, new mexico, and the many other cities visited by our local content vehicles go to c-span.org / local content. >> here is a list of the ten best-selling non-fiction e-book in print titles according to the new york times. this list reflects sales as of january 301st. ..